BACKGROUND // THE STATE AS ARCHITECT

 

On 5 September 2017, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree that unified Uzbekistan’s exchange rate and opened the som to free conversion for current transactions. It was among his first major economic decisions, and it set the tone for everything that followed: a clear signal that Uzbekistan was ready to integrate with global financial markets on open, transparent terms. Currency unification was the first in a sequence of structural changes that would, over the following eight years, rewrite the terms on which the country engages with international capital, trade and institutions.

​

The results speak in numbers. GDP grew by 7.7 percent in 2025, the strongest performance in five years, reaching $145 billion for the first time. In 2017, the economy stood at roughly $50 billion; it has nearly tripled in under a decade. Fitch Ratings and S&P Global both upgraded the sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB; Moody’s revised its outlook from stable to positive. Inflation eased to 7.3 percent by end-2025, down from 9.8 percent a year earlier. Unemployment fell to 4.8 percent. In the Open Data Inventory Index, the country advanced from 168th place in 2016 to 11th by 2024, a rise that reflects a new commitment to transparency as a governing principle.

 

The reform agenda has unfolded across distinct phases. The 2017–2021 National Development Strategy prioritised currency liberalisation, trade facilitation, tax simplification and the opening of borders to freer movement of goods and people. The Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy, adopted in September 2023, set targets for GDP, investment, privatization and social spending. In his December 2025 address to the Oliy Majlis, President Mirziyoyev confirmed that the original 2030 GDP target of $160 billion would be reached as early as 2026, and revised the five-year ambition upward: GDP is now expected to exceed $240 billion by 2030.

 

Privatization has evolved into a structured, capital-markets-led approach. In December 2024, the President approved the creation of the National Investment Fund, UzNIF, a vehicle holding 20 to 40 percent stakes in 18 state-owned enterprises across aviation, energy, banking and telecommunications. Franklin Templeton was appointed as asset manager and trustee. By the end of 2025, UzNIF’s net asset value stood at $2.44 billion. In April 2026, BlackRock and Franklin Templeton committed $300 million to the fund’s proposed dual listing on the London Stock Exchange and the Tashkent Stock Exchange, the country’s first international public market debut.

 

The investment climate has been reshaped in parallel. About 45 percent of state-owned enterprises were privatised by the end of 2023, including two commercial banks, chemical plants and manufacturing firms. Tax reforms in 2019 cut rates for both firms and individuals and simplified reporting. Visa requirements were eliminated for citizens of numerous countries. An electronic single-window platform for investor services went live in 2025. Export control functions were consolidated under the Customs Committee. The Technical Regulation Agency was reformed and placed under direct government oversight to accelerate international certification for domestic producers.

 

What follows in the pages of this edition traces the results of these reforms across every sector of the economy: finance, energy, industry, transport, agriculture and technology. Each section carries its own data, its own interviews, its own story. But the architecture that made them possible is the one described here: a state that chose, in a single decade, to build the institutions, instruments and legal frameworks that international capital recognises and rewards. The sections ahead show the momentum that architecture has created.

 

MACROECONOMIC TRAJECTORY

 

GDP expanded by 7.7 percent in 2025, the highest growth rate in five years, confirmed by the National Statistics Committee, the IMF and the World Bank. Growth was broad-based: construction output rose by 14.2 percent, market services expanded by 14.7 percent, industrial production grew by 6.8 percent and agriculture by 4.4 percent. The information and communications sector grew by 23.9 percent, nearly quadrupling the overall pace. Inflation eased to 7.3 percent by year-end, down from 9.8 percent in 2024, supported by a 6.9 percent appreciation of the som against the US dollar and disciplined monetary policy at the Central Bank’s 14 percent base rate.

 

The Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy is being revised upward. President Mirziyoyev told the Oliy Majlis in December 2025 that the original US$160 billion GDP target would be reached in 2026, with GDP projected at US$167 billion and growth at 6.6 percent. The five-year ambition now stands at over US$240 billion. From 2026, the government plans to launch 228 new production facilities worth US$14 billion and 782 industrial and infrastructure projects totalling US$52 billion. Over five years, the target is to attract US$180 billion in foreign investment and create one million high-income jobs. The World Bank projects Uzbekistan among the fastest-growing developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region.

​

REGULATORY REFORM AND THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

 

The 2017 currency liberalisation was followed by successive rounds of modernisation. The 2019 tax reform cut corporate and personal rates, simplified the tax code and introduced consolidated reporting. Export procedures were streamlined: all control functions consolidated under the Customs Committee, creating a single point of clearance. The Technical Regulation Agency was restructured to accelerate international certification. Uzbekistan rose 15 positions to 52nd place in the Global Quality Infrastructure Index among 185 countries. The number of registered entrepreneurs grew from 213,000 in 2016 to approximately 1.2 million by 2025. Visa requirements were eliminated for citizens of dozens of countries.

 

Digital government has become a reform priority in its own right. The “Digital Uzbekistan 2030” strategy encompasses more than 220 projects covering e-government, IT parks, digital identification and remote public services. By 2025, 12.8 million citizens had access to digitalised government services. The GovTech Quality Index recorded a 37-position improvement since 2020. A “budget for citizens” initiative increased transparency in public spending. From 2026, the “Electronic Government” platform will integrate over 1,000 government services, 5,000 functions, 200 databases and 100,000 civil servants’ powers into a single digital ecosystem, with artificial intelligence managing assignments, timelines and response tracking

​

PRIVATIZATION AND CAPITAL MARKETS

 

Privatization has evolved toward structured capital market listings. Approximately 45 percent of state-owned enterprises had been privatised by end-2023, including Ipoteka Bank, chemical plants and manufacturing companies. The target is to bring the state’s share of the banking sector to 40 percent, with Asakabank, Sanoat Qurilish Bank and Aloqabank progressing through restructuring. S&P, Fitch and Moody’s all rate the banking sector as stable. Total banking assets reached US$73.5 billion as of January 2026, a 20.2 percent increase over the year. Credit investments accounted for 63.5 percent of assets.

 

The creation of UzNIF in December 2024 marked an ambitious new chapter. Franklin Templeton was appointed to manage a portfolio of 18 state-owned entities with a net asset value of US$2.44 billion at end-2025, spanning transportation, energy production and telecommunications. The fund plans a dual listing on the London Stock Exchange and the Tashkent Stock Exchange, with BlackRock and Franklin Templeton committing US$300 million in cornerstone investment as of April 2026. Six individual company IPOs from within the portfolio are planned by end-2028. Jefferies is acting as sole global coordinator for the international tranche.

​

THE INVESTMENT ARCHITECTURE

 

Foreign investment reached US$43.1 billion in 2025, with the share of total investment in GDP at 31.9 percent. Gold and foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$60 billion for the first time. Over the past nine years, the country has attracted approximately US$130 billion in foreign investment across all sectors, compared with US$4.1 billion in 2017. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.1 percent of GDP, well below the government’s 3 percent target. At the C5+1 Presidential Summit in Washington in November 2025, the Department of Commerce announced a “Deal Zone” exceeding US$25 billion in commercial commitments.

 

The institutional framework has been consolidated around the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, which oversees investor services, export promotion and industrial policy. A new electronic platform, “Invest.gov.uz,” will provide comprehensive single-window services for investors, with all ministries integrated into the system. President Mirziyoyev set 2026 targets of US$50 billion in foreign investment and US$40 billion in exports. Ambassadors have been assigned specific performance indicators tied to delivery. The US International Development Finance Corporation agreed to open a regional office in Tashkent, and rare earths agreements with Denali Exploration Group and ReElement Technologies commit up to US$400 million to critical minerals supply chain development.

​

TRADE POLICY AND MARKET ACCESS

 

Foreign trade turnover surpassed US$81 billion in 2025, a 20.7 percent increase. Exports reached US$33.8 billion, up 24 percent, driven by agriculture, textiles, energy and processed materials. The number of exporting enterprises rose to 8,700, with 2,800 new entrants. For 2026, the target is US$40 billion in total exports, with finished goods and semi-finished products expected to account for over 55 percent. Uzbek companies will participate in 85 international exhibitions, including first-time appearances in 15 new markets. Real household incomes grew by 9.2 percent in 2025, expanding the domestic consumer base.

 

Market access has widened through multiple channels. The GSP+ arrangement, in effect since April 2021, provides preferential access to EU markets across two thirds of tariff lines. The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, signed in October 2025, extends cooperation into trade facilitation, critical raw materials and regulatory alignment. Bilateral EU-Uzbekistan trade nearly doubled since 2020, reaching €4.8 billion in 2024. In the United States, legislation to grant Central Asian countries Permanent Normal Trade Relations status was introduced in Congress alongside the November 2025 C5+1 Summit. WTO accession, the subject of a dedicated article in this edition, remains on track for 2026.

​

GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL PROGRESS

 

Uzbekistan has made steady progress across international governance indices. On Transparency International’s index, the country advanced to 121st place by 2024. The World Governance Indicators show government effectiveness rising to 120th and the rule of law advancing to 153rd. The OECD Country Risk Classification upgraded the country from category 6 to category 5. In the Technology Readiness Index published by the World Bank, Uzbekistan rose 71 positions and entered the top 10 countries in the world. A conflict-of-interest law has been adopted; whistleblower protection and asset declaration legislation are advancing through parliamentary discussion.

 

In January 2026, President Mirziyoyev assigned ambassadors specific key performance indicators tied to export volumes, tourist flows and labor migration from their countries of accreditation. The approach, described officially as a “diplomacy of results,” applies commercial metrics to foreign policy execution. An open, transparent public procurement system launched on 1 January 2026, giving entrepreneurs access to a guaranteed market of 300 trillion soums in goods and services. Civil society and the business community are being drawn into foreign economic strategy discussions. The trajectory is clear: a state that measures its performance by economic outcomes, that engages with international rating and review, and that builds the frameworks through which capital can move with confidence.